Mr Frank Gutter, Swiss Ambassador to Singapore
Mr James Soh, Chairman, 10th St. Gallen Symposium Singapore Forum
Mr Alexander Melcher, Member of the Organising Committee
Dr Gunner Hauptmann, CEO Designate, St. Gallen Symposium
Distinguished Guests,
Friends,
INTRODUCTION
Good evening everyone. I am thankful for the honour to speak at this esteemed symposium – it is really something I look forward to.
This is really an important forum for inter-generational dialogue, perspective sharing, and very importantly, on how to chart the way forward.
This year’s theme is a very apt one. We do live in a “Disrupted Age” and our responses now would set the foundation for the future.
The speed and scale of change is happening at an unprecedented rate. It is also the confluence of different changes that are layered upon each other that is having such a disproportionate impact. It can be disorientating.
But if I can encourage the younger leaders in this room - beyond the disorientation – look forward to the exciting times. It is in fact on occasions like this that Singapore and Switzerland can thrive in a new age.
Because in a status equilibrium, after having developed for 60 years, you have to ask the fundamental question: What is new for Singapore to get to the next level of development?
That will be challenging to do. But since we live in this world, we might as well embrace the disruption, look upon the opportunities and seize them.
So in my brief remarks to you this evening, I only have 10 minutes, I will quickly outline the macro forces that are causing the disruption today, and very importantly ask two sets of questions:
So what? What are the implications?
So how? How will we respond?
DISRUPTIVE FORCES OF OUR AGE
Let me start quickly. There are four disruptive forces layered upon each other.
First, the geopolitical instability. This is the defining disruptive force.
The international order has shifted from peace to “pieces”. There is no exaggeration in this, and I really like what the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney mentioned – it is a rupture, not a transition.
I will leave it at that level of thought. But for us Singaporeans, we need to know that it is the post-World War II international order and international rule of law that afforded Singapore the national security and economic conditions for us to thrive.1
This has fundamentally shifted. There are wars around the world, far away in the Middle East, far away in Europe. But know that even in ASEAN, the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict and tensions across the Taiwan Straits means that these things can happen in our backyard, to our neighbours.
It is very worrying that a once “benign” superpower that we relied on for the security in Southeast Asia and for Singapore’s security is now a completely changed superpower. The very fundamental basis of Singapore’s security is built upon the balance of power and the idea of a benign superpower. That has changed.
Second, closely linked to the first, is the shift in the global economy from an age of globalisation to de-globalisation.
We are seeing economic disruption. From a period of immense wealth creation when I was a young boy growing up, to now de-globalisation, coupled with tariffs and volatility that impedes many of the business leaders’ calculations. That is not good for business.
Beyond that, great powers are weaponising economic tools as instruments of statecraft for pure raw national interests. That is a fundamental shift and I would think almost irreversible in my lifetime.2
This convergence of great powers’ geostrategic competition and new economic realities is a fundamental shift like what Canadian Prime Minister Carney has mentioned, and this will not go away any time soon.
These two important disruptive forces have changed the environment in which Singapore was able to thrive.
Third, technological disruption brought great opportunities some 10 years ago, when we entered the Industry 4.0 age, where automation and robotics afforded great productivity gains.
These, coupled with Artificial Intelligence (AI) now, is going to be very disruptive to the workforce.
On the one hand, we have great possibilities. On the other hand, potential disruptions.
AI is not just a frontier technology anymore, it is becoming more like a general-purpose technology – similar to electricity and computing, no longer restricted to a specific domain of business but with widespread impact across all sectors of the economy.3
Fundamentally different from other ages of industry revolution, AI will not only impact blue-collar workers, but white-collar workers as well. Professions that Singaporeans my age, that our parents told us to go for – bankers, doctors, accountants and lawyers – are potentially in the space of being disrupted.
NTUC is no longer just representing blue-collar workers. When we enter a disrupted world, NTUC will be alongside the white-collar workers and champion their interests in a fair manner that can sustain the whole ecosystem.
Fourth, demographic shifts disruption.
As I understand from the World Health Organization, by 2030, 1 in 6 people in the world will be aged 60 years or over.4
For Singapore, by 2030, we will face a worse situation where 1 in 4 of us will be 65 years or older.5 We will not only be a super-aged society, but continue to be one of the world’s fastest ageing societies.6
This means that in a shorter time than most, Singapore’s economy, social fabric and outlook must transform to meet the realities of an ageing workforce and population that will bring different pressures in society.
Taken together, the disruptive forces of geopolitics, economics, technology and demographics mean that we are fundamentally ushering in a different paradigm in the world economy and geopolitics.
SO WHAT? IMPLICATIONS: OPPORTUNITIES AND DOWNSIDES
So what? What are the implications for all of us?
This is the question to ask of our generation of leaders and future generations. I will do a summary of three top-line implications.
The first implication is on Singapore’s national security.
The second implication, not hard to deduce, would be Singapore’s economic relevance amidst geo-economic and trade re-alignment, especially with the advent of AI.
These are simple questions, but the answers will require a lot of thinking and a lot of hard work.
The two implications I mentioned are somewhat readily apparent. But I would offer a third, often less discussed implication. It is the implication of the divisive forces that are pulling, or have the potential to pull, societies apart. These divisive forces will likely grow in this disruptive age. These can be:
Once the vicious cycle is in place, you can portend what could happen when the pie shrinks, and the pressures mount.
This divisive force is less-discussed, less-articulated in the business world, but it is very much a concern of mine in the Labour Movement, where we fend for better lives and livelihoods.
SO HOW? HOW SHOULD WE RESPOND?
With the top-line implications, let me break it down to three parts:
First, in the geopolitical and geo-economic space, we must be clear-eyed: as a small country, we are a price-taker
I’m happy that our Government is already doing this.
Second, I would encourage all of us to embrace and adapt to the “disrupted age” and turn it to our advantage.
It can be done. Singapore’s story is a most unlikely one. We have done it for 60 years, and we can do it again.
Although we were not so optimistic about our economic outlook in the past 2 years, we grew at 4.8% last year – in spite of the tumultuous conditions!7
At the national level, one key thing we must do is to encourage AI and technology adoption at the national, business and workforce levels, so we can mitigate labour shortages, change the weaknesses in our labour-scarce economy to one that can flourish with technologies.
Adoption must happen at every level and across businesses and workers alike.
New business models should be encouraged and supported. NTUC supports good businesses.
Employers, institutions and workers themselves must take ownership – redesigning jobs, embedding training into new business models, and planning career pathways early.
What would success look like? If you recall the First Industrial Revolution:
What it means is that if we can seize those opportunities. AI, RPA (robotic process automation) and Industry 4.0 technologies could enable and empower Singapore’s economy to transform and create great wealth and better lives for Singaporeans.
However, that is only one side of the story. With the Industrial Revolution, where great disruptions happened, there were downsides too.
In the long term, the Industrial Revolution benefitted human civilisation. But in the interim 10, 20 and 30 years, those transitions were terrible for artisans and weavers, and all those who were doing their best to secure their lives and livelihoods. In Singapore, we would say their rice bowls were broken.
Many benefitted, but even if 10 to 20 per cent were to suffer these injustices in the modern world, can you imagine the unrest it can portend?
Understanding that displacement can and will likely happen, how can we prepare and pre-empt the downsides of disruption, even as we seize opportunities.
This brings me to the third point: working together for a fair and just transition.
A fair and just transition must be a critical element of our overall response strategy, and not as an afterthought.
If it is an afterthought, it means the downsides will surface and will cause a vicious cycle where 10 to 25 per cent of the population will disown the technologies, the possibilities, and scuttle the opportunities.
If we can respond with an overall, cogent strategy, we can take it far.
So, what would a ‘Just and Fair’ transition look like?
It could be something like what NTUC and our tripartite partners have been doing:
It could also look like:
This sounds like what we need to do in this disrupted age, but the scale is insufficient. To succeed, we have to redouble our efforts.
Even as we do all these in the Labour Movement, NTUC has embarked a conversation with workers across all collars some three years ago.
Even as we do our best to design the best possible strategies, would we also have the humility in action to talk to the lowest level of worker to understand their plight and empower them to have a conversation with leaders of today and leaders of the future.
I think if we can do that, we will have a good chance to succeed.
CLOSING
I will stop here, and not make the mistake of making this a monologue.
I look forward to the fireside chat with all of you to listen to perspectives from across the world, across generations, so that we can forge a better future for ourselves together as friends across the Labour Movement and businesses.
Thank you very much.
3 Is generative AI a General Purpose Technology? | OECD: “Despite the early evidence, generative AI appears to exhibit the defining characteristics of GPTs: i) pervasiveness, ii) continuous improvement over time and iii) innovation spawning.”
